Case 03: Execução de Contratos: Doing Business

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# Case 03: Execução de Contratos: Doing Business
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# Objetivos de aprendizagem de hoje

#### Saber o que são indicadores internacionais como o Doing Business

#### Compreender sobre estudos prospectivos e retrospectivos

#### Compreender como fazemos para analisar tempos

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# Guia para os slides

#### Slides sobre o case: __marca azul__

#### Slides sobre pesquisa/ciência: __marca verde__

#### Slides sobre estatística: __marca rosa__

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# O que é um indicador?

- Variável utilizada para medir __mudanças__.

- Nas empresas, temos o jargão KPI, ou *key performance indicators*.

- Pode ser quantitativo ou qualitativo. As definições variam, mas indicadores quantitativos podem ser chamados de __índices__.

### O que faz um indicador de qualidade?

- __Precisão__: Evidência objetiva sobre o progresso do fenômeno de interesse.

- __Validade__: Se o indicador subir ou descer, devemos ter a sensação de que a situação melhorou/piorou.

- __Replicabilidade__: Deve utilizar uma metodologia que pode ser replicada no futuro (replicável `\(\neq\)` reprodutível).

### Exemplos

- Em um escritório de advocacia: taxa de resultados favoráveis / média geral.

- Sociedade: índice de Gini, índice de desenvolvimento humano.

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# O Doing Business

Link: [Doing Business](https://portugues.doingbusiness.org/pt/doingbusiness)

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# Problema do Doing Business

- É medido a partir das percepções de __especialistas__ sobre o tema.

- O questionário permite a __manutenção__ das percepções nos anos anteriores.

- Existe um __incentivo__ para que as métricas não mudem no tempo.

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# Sobre o case

__Objetivos__:

- Desenvolver uma metodologia reprodutível e estimar as métricas do Doing Business sobre Execução de Contratos, referentes à comarca de São Paulo.

- Produzir um relatório analítico-propositivo com sugestões de alterações legais e administrativas para aprimorar o sistema judiciário no Brasil.

__Recorte temporal__: processos distribuídos entre 2013 e 2019.

__Recorte regional__: comarca da capital, foro central cível.

__Recorte de escopo__: [diversas variáveis](https://abj.org.br/pdf/abj_pnud_db.pdf) relacionadas ao *case* do Doing Business.

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# Metodologia

- Obtenção dos dados via diários de justiça e ofício ao TJSP.

- Aplicação dos filtros de escopo

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# Classe e Assunto

[__Resolução 46__ do CNJ](https://www.cnj.jus.br/sgt/consulta_publica_classes.php): Tabelas Processuais Unificadas (TPU).

__Problema__: [cifra oculta](https://lab.abj.org.br/posts/2020-12-07-cifra-oculta/).

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# Estudo prospectivo e retrospectivo

- Estudos prospectivos são úteis quando o intuito é estudar o tempo das fases do processo.

- Já estudos retrospectivos são úteis para a análise do perfil de decisões.

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# Tempos em estudos retrospectivos

.panelset[

.panel[.panel-name[O que observamos]

]

.panel[.panel-name[O que é de verdade]

]

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# Análise de tempos

- Quando o estudo é prospectivo, utilizamos uma técnica chamada __análise de sobrevivência__.

- A técnica é capaz de lidar corretamente com casos que ainda estão ativos no momento da análise. Denominamos esses casos como __censura__.

- A censura é capaz de lidar com informações incompletas. No nosso caso, sabemos que um processo ativo nascido em janeiro de 2021 durou __pelo menos 7 meses__ até agora.

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# Gráfico de sobrevivência

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---
class: stats

# Resumo

- __Indicadores__ são variáveis que medem mudança.

- Estudos __prospectivos__ listam processos a partir do nascimento. Estudos __retrospectivos__ listam processos a partir da morte.

- Análise de __sobrevivência__ é uma técnica útil para análise de tempos em estudos prospectivos.

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# Resultados gerais da pesquisa

- Tempo de citação encontrado similar à percepção. Tempo da fase de conhecimento muito menor. Tempo da fase de execução muito maior.

|Tema                 |Valor anterior |Sugestão  |Justificativa                |
|:--------------------|:--------------|:---------|:----------------------------|
|Citação              |41 dias        |45+ dias  |Estudo empírico (com margem) |
|Tempo (conhecimento) |480 dias       |258 dias  |Estudo empírico              |
|Tempo (execução)     |210 dias       |255+ dias |Estudo empírico (com margem) |

- Proposta de reduzir tempo do Brasil, o que melhora a posição do país na métrica de Execução de Contratos.

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# Proposições de políticas públicas

- Ampliação da competência das varas especializadas

- Abertura de dados do judiciário

- Modificação de prazos processuais

- Regulamentações sobre adiamentos

- Roteiro para audiência de conciliação

- Citação e intimação pessoal por meio eletrônico

- Peticionamento eletrônico

Veja o relatório para acessar fundamentação e discussões.

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# Quiz

## https://forms.office.com/r/GKGNgMhexd

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# Obrigado!

### [Julio Trecenti](mailto:jaztrecenti@pucsp.br)